The Great Game

IIPM PUBLICATION

For those familiar with the Great Game, it is basically the rise and rise of China that has convinced the United States that India must be wooed and befriended and encouraged to emerge as a global ‘balancing’ power as a counterweight against the growing strategic ‘competition’ from China. For sure, China will threaten the American dominance of Asia and the world for decades to come. Who better than a militarily, economically, demographically and technologically powerful India to counter the Chinese ‘menace’? Strategic analysts ranging from C. Raja Mohan and C. Uday Bhaskar to K. Subramanyam caution that India must pursue its own national interest and not succumb to the temptation of picking up fights with China on behalf of the United States. Just as the US continues to support Pakistan, India, too, needs to engage with China rather than confront the dragon.

Yet, these cautionary signals apart, there is absolutely no doubt that Manmohan Singh and George Bush have “created history.” After decades of inward looking isolation, missed economic opportunities and the status of a third world wannabe, India is well on its way to becoming a regional super power in its own right. And what about the vociferous protests by the Left ? But that’s the beauty of the Indian democracy that Bush so admires. Isn’t it?!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Rashmi Bansal Publisher of JAMMAG magazine caught red-handed, for details click on the following links.

• Hindustan Times Article - Publisher goes underground
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Rising Oil Imports

IIPM MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE

Factor number two that makes India vulnerable is the future of the rupee vis-à-vis the American dollar. Historically, the Indian rupee has always fallen in value against the dollar, increasing the burden of oil imports. Take 1991, when the combination of Manmohan Singh as finance minister and P. Chidambaram as commerce minister launched economic reforms by devaluing the rupee against the dollar by almost 50% in a phased manner. The immediate result: a 50% jump in the rupee burden of oil imports. If there is sustained pressure on the rupee, India will be vulnerable to higher import bills. Yet, the performance of the rupee against the dollar over the last few years has been remarkably stable. And if FII and FDI inflows continue to accelerate, there will be no significant pressure on the rupee. Nevertheless, going by the historical behaviour of the rupee against the dollar, future areas of concern remain.

The third factor that makes India vulnerable is the growing oil intensity in the economy. In layman’s terms, oil intensity refers to the amount of oil used to produce one unit of GDP. Traditionally, the oil intensity in a developing economy keeps going up. India is no different, though there was a decline in the 1990s. The sustained growth in India’s transportation and automotive sectors means that oil intensity will remain high, leading to higher oil consumption and inflated import bills.

So much for the factors that could make the Indian economy vulnerable in the long run. The key concern relates to what Indian policy makers can do to ensure two things: One, that India pays as less as possible for oil imports in the long run. And, two, that political and other upheavals do not disrupt oil supplies resulting in yet another dose of oil shock to the Indian economy.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Rashmi Bansal Publisher of JAMMAG magazine caught red-handed, for details click on the following links.

• Hindustan Times Article - Publisher goes underground
• Rashmi Bansal (Editor of JAMMAG)
• Rashmi Bansal (Publisher of JAMMAG)

JSW is all set to steal the show from the biggies on the global steel stage...in style!

IIPM PUBLICATION

‘Others saw it as unfeasible, but Sajjan Jindal saw it otherwise...’ Yes, if you’re wondering what we’re referring to here, here’s a simple narration – After Indira Gandhi laid the foundation stone of Vijayanagar Steel Plant, back in 1971, not a single company came to the front to set up the plant on account of viability of the project. However, post-liberalisation, Sajjan Jindal decided to take up the challenge and did so gutsily in 1994. Defyiang all odds he and his team impeccably tailored the impossible imagination into a fructiferous reality. During our visit to JSW Steel Ltd. (JSW) site in Vijayanagar, to whomsoever we spoke, all voiced out proudly in unison, “We took the challenge of setting up the plant where nobody dared to do so...”

In order to overcome the unfeasibility of the project, JSW took the ‘big risk’ of espousing the untested technology – Corex (which uses coal instead of coke), in contrast to the common blast furnace, which finally paid-off handsomely and was nothing short of a miracle. Later on, due to various constraints concerning usage of Corex – as it limited production capacity to just 0.8 MT per corex and high set-up & maintenance cost which stood at double than of the common blast furnace – JSW installed blast furnaces and did that quite successfully to make them money-spinning steelmaking machines – surely a feat possible ‘only’ in the eyes of Jindal. And the whole chain of incidents looks nothing short of a fable considering the ‘geographical obstacles’ in mind. But succeed he did, and thereon began the aeon of unmatched and unbeatable legacy.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Rashmi Bansal Publisher of JAMMAG magazine caught red-handed, for details click on the following links.

• Hindustan Times Article - Publisher goes underground
• Rashmi Bansal (Editor of JAMMAG)
• Rashmi Bansal (Publisher of JAMMAG)

A Nouveau Challenge

IIPM MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE

RCL’s march into GSM has been stalled for the moment. Existing cellular operators are contesting giving available GSM spectrum (most of it left by the defence forces) to a new player, a move that is supported by COAI. However, considering that the row with Qualcomm over CDMA handset pricing has been resolved, RCL may just want to stay put with CDMA at the moment. As it is, the imbroglio over spectrum allocation is not expected to be resolved soon.

The larger threat is the threat of Vodafone, which is planning to invest $2 billion into the Indian market (one-fifth of its global capex plans), is already looming on the horizon. A brutal price war is imminent, and so is a revision of existing market positions. While Bharti is still making RCL sweat in the heat, the bigger danger will be the arrival of Vodafone in India. Not only will Vodafone eat into Bharti and RCL’s market share, it is bound to emerge as a strong telecom player with strong handset bundling capabilities, an area which is considered to be RCL’s core strength. Vodafone has already come up with two cheap handsets – Vodafone 125 and Vodafone 225, which would retail for $25- 45 in emerging markets, where India is top priority.

A fantastic financial year has passed for RCL, but can the same be predicted for the current financial? Will the ‘Vodafone tide’ be strong enough to sweep RCL’s dreams away, or will the company successfully weather the impact? We take another look at the National Operations Centre, where the best brains at Reliance are engaged in seemingly endless brainstorming sessions, scrutinizing multitudes of market data, and deciding how to capitalize on the upcoming opportunities and respond to the emerging threats. A lot will depend on how the top brass strategizes ahead. And time, as always, is in short supply...!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Rashmi Bansal Publisher of JAMMAG magazine caught red-handed, for details click on the following links.

• Hindustan Times Article - Publisher goes underground
• Rashmi Bansal (Editor of JAMMAG)
• Rashmi Bansal (Publisher of JAMMAG)