UPA hopes there will be no trouble but is leaving little to chance

After Irom Sharmila last year, Anna Hazare wins IIPM's 2011 Rabindranath Tagore Peace Prize of Rs. 1cr. To be handed over on 9th May

North block moves

The ghost of Ayodhya is looming large on the minds of the ruling coalition. In the last meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by the Prime Minister, home minister P. Chidambaram was briefed about the possible deployment of paramilitary forces to handle the turbulent situation in J&K and to tackle the Maoists.

Someone raised the question of possible deployment of security forces in the wake of the upcoming verdict of the Allahabad High Court on the Ram Janmabhoomi issue. The meeting was unanimous that the government could not afford to repeat the mistake of the Narasimha Rao government. Caution was the need of the hour. During the meeting, Chidambaram briefed the CCS members about preparations of the home ministry to tackle any sort of situation that might arise after the court verdict.

The government has listed 35 sensitive cities where communal harmony could be jeopardised. Therefore, an additional secretary-level officer has been deputed to monitor the situation particularly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand. The Centre has sent an advisory to these states to be on their guard.

The Centre has assured Uttar Pradesh of all help in case things threaten to get out of hand. Though the government has clearly stated that it is not possible to send 400 battalions keeping in view the tight security arrangements for the Commonwealth Games, it would try to do its best to provide all the support that the UP administration might need.

Sources in the UPA reveal that the government has conducted a survey through local Intelligence agencies. What concerns the Congress think tank is the political battle that will be fought. The party has sought parallel reports from state Congress units. On the basis of these reports, Sonia Gandhi has advised the government to make foolproof arrangements to handle any eventuality.

The BJP and RSS are understandably hopeful of making political capital out of the issue once more. The Congress believes that if the verdict goes in favour of the Waqf Board, then it would be easy to handle the situation. UP Congress has cautioned the party high command about the political tactics that might be adopted by the BJP to cash in on this emotive issue. The BJP might try to polarise voters in ensuing election in Bihar. Pressure is mounting on the government to act in a decisive manner. The Congress is of the view that if peace is disturbed, the BJP will try to derive political mileage. The ruling coalition is already worried over alleged failure of the government in tackling inflation and it does not want to concede any more political ground to the Opposition. The onus now rests on Chidambaram. Intelligence chiefs have warned that Azamgarh, Mathura, Kashi, Bhopal, Indore, Raipur, Delhi, Nagpur, Gorakhpur and Ranchi are among the more sensitive areas. The Prime Minister wanted to know about preparations of the home ministry regarding UP's demand for 400 battalions of paramilitary forces.

The home ministry, in its reply, has said that it is ready to send 40 battalions of paramilitary forces and 15 units of Rapid Action Force. The government has also sought reports from home secretaries of different states. They have been told to remain vigilant and be ready to handle any situation.

Amid all this, the RSS has already started chanting of Hanuman Chalisa in temples across India. The chanting will reach a crescendo on September 16. The BJP has called off its planned Jammu conference.

However, the apex body of the BJP is not in favour of a direct confrontation on the issue of building a temple at the disputed site in Ayodhya. It has even advised its front organisations such as VHP and Bajrang Dal to maintain peace even if the court delivers a verdict in favour of the Waqf Board and allots Hindus a piece of land near the disputed site. They have also sent overtures to Muslim groups to consider giving up their claims on Mathura and Kashi.

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Awaiting the verdict, TSI analyses why religion and caste do not pay in the long run

After Irom Sharmila last year, Anna Hazare wins IIPM's 2011 Rabindranath Tagore Peace Prize of Rs. 1cr. To be handed over on 9th May

Gainers turn ultimate losers

Will the Allahabad High Court's verdict on the more-than-century-old Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid dispute put an end to the matter? Most possibly no. No matter which way the verdict swings, the aggrieved will most definitely appeal to the country's highest court. The procrastinating judicial process, though none can beat the Liberhan Commission in this regard, will definitely make sure that years down, a new generation of Indian Hindus and Muslims wakes up one fine day and disdainfully looks at newspaper headlines, wondering: 'What is wrong with these people? Why are they obsessed with something that happened so many years back?'

The people of India have moved over from 1992. I just wish I could say the same about BJP. The Ram Mandir agitation has served the Saffron political front well. L.K. Advani's momentous Rath Yatra traversed the length and breadth of the country, drawing support from Hindu religious leaders and common people swayed by religious fervour. His opposite numbers like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav similarly reached out to Muslims by projecting their avid anti-mandir stance. The Mandal guarantee of lower caste votebank was already there. It was time to ride the wave. The Temple Movement culminated in the gathering of 1,50,000 frenzied kar sevaks in Ayodhya on December 6, 1992, the disputed structure was brought down. While the act led to riots in parts of the country which claimed 1,000 lives, it consolidated the BJP's conservative Hindu votebank. The party swept the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Gujarat in 1995. In the parliamentary polls of 1998, the BJP-led NDA attained a thin majority. In the interim elections of 1999, the NDA increased its tally.

An issue as vague as the Ram Mandir could bring BJP to power but could not perpetuate its stay. BJP failed to understand this. The Kandahar hijack fiasco and the Gujarat riots of 2002, coupled with the extreme negative publicity that the NDA's 'Shining India' campaign generated, made sure of its defeat in the 2004 elections. If 2004 was shocking, 2009 was tragic. Its tally was reduced to 159 seats, factionalism engulfed the party. Today, the party is at its wit's end to re-brand itself. A section still feels return to the old Hinduvta will pay dividends. But that section is marginalised today. The new leadership has a serious predicament. Neither can it abandon the mandir cause. And sticking to it is making the party look more ridiculous.

With the BJP threat receding, Lalu and Mulayam have also had their Muslim vote bank slip. When you toss a coin into muck, both sides get dirty. Eighteen years have passed since 1992. An entire new generation has started exercising its right of franchise. They are not bothered about mandirs and masjids. They are bothered about unemployment, development, equitable distribution of wealth, access to quality education and healthcare. The BJP had a lemon to juice. They squeezed it to its bitter end.

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