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Saturday, February 19, 2011

The Congress faces many challenges in Bihar

but with Rahul Gandhi leading the way, the party could spring a few surprises in the coming Assembly elections

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Will the upcoming Bihar Assembly election culminate on the note that Rahul Gandhi wants it to ' with a victory for the Congress? Having presided over a dramatic turnaround for the state, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is on a firm wicket. But with Rahul bent upon ensuring a Congress comeback, the Janata Dal (United) leader has a fight on his hands.

Elements within the Congress are still trying hard to improve the party's prospects in Bihar, especially in the light of the need for strengthening grassroots preparations. Rahul's Mission Bihar may have raised some storm and dust ahead of the Assembly polls, but for the exercise to reach its logical conclusion, the Congress organisation in the state needs another big push.

When did the Congress kick off its new Bihar electoral strategy? It started with the dismissal of state Congress chief Anil Sharma and Bihar in-charge Jagdish Tytler. However, this move did not help the Congress organisation as much as it wanted. The high command realised that instead of strengthening the state unit, the step triggered factional rifts. A damage control plan was quickly put in place: veteran leader Moti Lal Vora dashed to Patna for an on-the-spot assessment of the situation. Vora's report acknowledged that factionalism was rampant in the party ranks and that the scenario was aggravated by the inability of senior state leaders to stem the infighting. After a tour of the state by Rahul Gandhi in February, It was decided that booth-level party workers would be trained in the intricacies of the electoral process by March end. But a formal strategy for the same still has to be finalised.

With the election only a few months away ' scheduled for October ' the Congress high command realised the urgency of injecting fresh life into the Bihar unit. As part of Mission Rahul, Union minister for social justice and empowerment Mukul Wasnik was appointed the new state in-charge whereas minority leader Mehboob Ali Kaiser was named state party president. Kaiser, who was born and brought up in a conservative Muslim family and a Congress environment, is a soft and tactful leader ' some say he needs to be tougher to unite the Congress in the state.

The Congress is going ahead with its plans to formulate a strategy for all Assembly constituencies in Bihar. It is said that men like Sadhu Yadav and Pappu Yadav as well as Bhumihar leaders like Moti Lal Sharma, Mahachandra Singh, Vishwa Mohan Sharma and Vinod Sharma have quite a hold on Kaiser. It is difficult to predict at this point whether the Congress will benefit from the likes of Sadhu Yadav and Pappu Yadav. However, it is a foregone conclusion that the Bhumihar votes in the state will go only to Bhumihar candidates. Litmus test The Congress party's search for a stick to beat the Nitish Kumar government with ended with the unearthing of the treasury scandal. Irregularities have allegedly been detected in the execution of numerous development schemes, including the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) and the mid-day meal scheme, between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2008. The Congress accused Nitish Kumar, Sushil Modi, the state chief secretary and several ministers of misappropriation of funds.

Another issue that the Congress has raised pertains to people dying from hunger in Bihar. At least 15 people have died of hunger in the past four years in Bihar, asserts a Supreme Court-appointed official after extensive surveys. Nitish Kumar talks about good governance in Bihar whereas some of his fellow JD(U) leaders say that Nitish is a trite more arrogant now. Locals feel that the bureaucracy is so unbridled that there is no respite for the layman. Nitish claims that the right place for criminals is in prison. However his friendship with people like Anant Singh, Dhumal Singh, Munna Shukla, Sunil Pandey and Anand Mohan Singh belies his stated stand.

The Congress plans to select its candidates and draw up its electoral strategy in accordance with the central and local observer's reports. The most important point in the central observer's report was that the people of the state are losing patience with political thugs. People are rejecting candidates with muscle power.

Now people believe that candidates with an immaculate image should join politics. During his February visit, Rahul Gandhi indicated that the Congress will give tickets to educated new faces in the Bihar elections. The central observer's report suggested that in Bihar the Congress should keep caste equations in mind and should focus on caste groups that are traditional Congress supporters (Brahmins, Rajputs, Muslims and Dalits). The observer's report had played down the problem of factionalism. The high command believes that this report was inadequate and is, therefore, likely to go by what the central observer has recommended.

Bihar Congress workers are optimistic about the impact that Rahul Gandhi will have on the coming elections. However, Janata Dal (U) president Sharad Yadav says: 'Where is the Congress in Bihar?' He told TSI, 'The Congress exists only on paper and their leaders are paper tigers.' Yadav claims that the Nitish Kumar government is about good governance and it would be difficult to dislodge it. However, the Congress is looking through the prism of Rahul Gandhi and might wrestle some power in Bihar. Having emerged from Lalu Prasad's shadow, the party is trying to find its own feet again. Rahul Gandhi's commitment to get clean candidates has elicited a positive response from the people. Bihar Congress spokesman and political thinker Muktinath Upadhyay thinks that Rahul Gandhi has organisational skills and ability to convince the younger generation which makes them confident that they can achieve any target if they honestly work hard. He thinks that it is because of Rahul Gandhi's initiative that the Congress has succeeded in ridding itself of Lalu Prasad. This, says Upadhyay, has led to a new buoyancy in the party rank and file. Litmus test Brahmins and Muslims are favouring the Congress openly. People are hoping that under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, Bihar will witness a new dawn. It is believed that after the October Bihar Assembly elections, there will be a new political scenario in Bihar. Nitish is trying to retain power with the slogan of good governance, whereas Sushil Modi wants to become the next CM. That is one reason that BJP leaders did not create any uproar on the Narendra Modi dispute. Despite Nitish Kumar's stubborn attitude, Arun Jaitley and Anant Kumar were trying to bridge the gap. Nitish also realised that JD(U) is not in a position to win the election on its own. Maybe that's why he may ban a few outlaw candidates for this election.

On the other hand, Lalu Prasad, who realises that his dwindling political stocks has something to do with his support to undesirable elements, has decided not to nominate any criminal in the next election. He dumped Sadhu Yadav like a sack of hot potatoes. He has also advised Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan to follow the same course of action. Lalu Prasad has, however, inducted JD(U) leader Prabhunath Singh into the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) despite his suspect antecedents.

The Congress, after studying the emerging political scenario in Bihar, has prepared a road map. Mission Rahul hinges on:

Foolproof planning to get hold of the empty spaces left by Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan to make use of the second line of leadership so as not to repeat the mistakes of the senior leaders of Bihar nominating educated new candidates with an unsullied image and keeping Bihar caste equations in mind The party believes that people voted for Nitish because they were fed up with Laloo-Rabri's jungle raj. In 2005, when Congress hits its worst patch in Bihar, JD(U) lost 51 seats out of which their candidates lost their deposits in nine. Even BJP lost 47 seats and could not save the deposits in nine constituencies.

Paswan and Laloo's party was defeated in 193 seats and 141 candidates lost their deposits. However things have changed in five years. The Bihar byelection results were startling. Nitish Kumar's candidates lost seven seats whereas Congress won two seats and there was an increase in the Congress vote percentage. If we talk about caste and community equations, Muslims openly supported the Congress whereas Brahmins and Rajputs are scared of the current government's zamindari elimination programme and are looking up to the Congress for succour.

It was suggested that Congress should announce its candidates well in advance so that they get ample time for campaigning. Mukul Wasnik accepts now that there are new challenges but also claims that Congress will do well in this election.

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